Chart – Inflation Watch June 2021: Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated 75-ish BP Over Pre-Pandemic Levels

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS Spread, a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities, for the 5 years ending 6/30/21

As one can see in these charts, the 5-year TIPS spread continues to sit around the 2.5% range, closing at 2.46% on June 29th, the last trading day of the month. Eyeballing this chart, if one calls the pre-pandemic level 1.75%, which is debatable (thus the “ish” in the title), then the TIPS spread, and thus inflation expectations, are running about 75 basis points higher than they were before anyone had heard of COVID-19.

“Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair.”

~Sam Ewing

Real Money at Stake

Real money is at stake with these spreads. TIPS pay interest every six months, based on a fixed rate that is calculated by multiplying the adjusted principal by one-half the calculated interest rate (i.e. half a year’s worth of inflation at that rate). Thus, a “bet” that an investor makes in with these bonds has real financial implications. If actual inflation is higher than priced in the markets, a TIPS buyer will make more that a straight treasury buyer. If it is lower, that TIPS buyer will make less. How much money is at stake? In 2017 Morningstar pegged the market at $1.2 trillion. Thus, every 1/10% difference is a $1.2 billion swing. That is real money by my count.

Generally on Inflation and Commercial Real Estate

What is the impact of inflation on commercial real estate? In the near term, higher inflation tends to bring higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are a negative for commercial real estate. Higher rates means larger debt service payments, reducing the buying power of purchasers, and negatively impacting deal economics. It also means makes fixed income investments a more competitive investment, likely pulling capitalization rates (cap rates) up, and thus prices down. Over a longer period, however, the prospect of inflation leads to a principal benefit of commercial property investment, that of its potential as a hedge against inflation. After all, more inflation should lead to higher rent, at least in time.

MIT published an excellent whitepaper on real estate’s ability to keep pace with inflation with data to 2016. They looked at then tendency of retail, multifamily, industrial, and office income and values to keep pace with inflation. The best at keeping pace income-wise was retail, with rent growth of 102% of inflation. Office was the worst performing at a quite dismal 18%. Values across the property types were more consistently kept pace, with retail again doing the best appreciating at 107% of inflation, office again the worst at 74% of inflation. I’ll speculate that the fairly drastic difference between income and value keeping pace with inflation is driven by vacancy. If you’re interested in the topic, read the paper.

Expectations for inflation also come into play with lease structure and due diligence. A lease structure with a fixed rent increase becomes less attractive for a landlord with higher inflation expectations. Similarly, a commercial property being acquired with existing leasing in place that have fixed or capped rent increases looks less attractive as inflation expectations increase. Also, a property being purchased with fixed rate financing will look increasingly attractive if a buyer anticipates inflation fueled increases in income. Inflation, in short, is very important to commercial property investors.

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Considering commercial real estate for its inflation hedging possibilities? Check out Miami area listings in this HawkinsCRE.com site. You can view all the properties listed on the commercial MLS in Miami-Dade county, or view only certain types: industrial ; multifamily ; office ; retail ; vacant land . You can also view properties filtered for their municipal zoning code or view properties by zip code or by their general location/region in Miami-Dade. Also available are office condo listings by building and multifamily properties displaying and sorted by price per unit. Even better, contact us to help you find the right property to acquire. With our other subscription resources, our proprietary database of off-market properties.

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Chart: Miami Commercial Real Estate Sales to List Price Ratio June 2021

January 2011 to June 2021 Sales to List Price Ratio for Commercial/Industrial Property within Miami-Dade County, Florida and Priced from $1 Million to $10 Million as Recorded in Miami MLS

The chart herein displays the sales price to list price ratio as reported by the Miami MLS for improved commercial real estate (MLS classification: commercial/industrial) within Miami-Dade county in the state of Florida priced from $1 million to $10 million that closed from January 2011 to June 2021. This ratio has spiked up to 95.5%, about as high as this has registered but for the (seemingly) anomalous 100% number in February 2017.

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Miami Commercial Real Estate News July 7, 2021: Plan for WorldCenter Marriot Marquis Nixed, Land Trades; Mana Expands Downtown Assemblage; More…

Moishe Mana expands downtown Miami assemblage with $12 million purchase

Downtown Miami’s largest private property owner is still adding to his assemblage. Mana, who has envisioned transforming his real estate into the Mana Common tech and cultural hub, bought the half-acre parking lot at 49 Northwest First Street for $12.4 million, according to a news release. Miami Beach investor Andrew Mirmelli, manager of M&M Parking, sold…

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Chart: Miami-Dade Commercial Property Estimated Turnover 2016 to 2020

The question comes up as to how frequent a commercial property trades in the Miami area. Many take a guess at this, but which I’ve never heard of anyone else really making an effort to truly quantify it. I’ve taken a swing at it here. The Methodology. The value of what trades as a percentage as the numerator (selling prices) is not disclosed for many trades and in any…

Brazil’s Biggest Homebuilder Expanding Quickly In U.S. Multifamily

The biggest homebuilder in Brazil has entered the U.S. multifamily market and is expanding quickly through a South Florida developer and landlord. Miami-based AHS Residential controls and operates 11 communities and over 2,500 apartment units in Florida. In South Florida specifically, AHS Residential has five new apartment communities…

Related Group Seals $73 Million Loan From Cerberus for Wynwood 29 Project

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“The Cult of We” review: “Emperor’s New Clothes” of the Silicon Valley age

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Pandemic fueled record business openings wave in Miami

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Downtown Miami Office Vacancy at 24% in Q2, Up Slightly From Q1

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Miami may forgive millions in Jungle Island debt

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Venetian, Rickenbacker Causeway redevelopment sought

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Research Points To E-Commerce-Driven Need For Another 330 Million Square Feet By 2025

Even though the most-dire days of the COVID-19 pandemic may be in the past, that, by no means, has pumped the brakes on the frenetic pace of e-commerce activity, driven by the steady drum beat of consumer demand. That was evident in the findings of a report recently issued by Los Angeles-based industrial real estate […]…

Restaurant aid runs dry, leaving most applicants with nothing

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CP Group Acquires One Biscayne Tower in Downtown Miami for $225M

CP Group, formerly Crocker Partners, has acquired One Biscayne Tower, a 38-story office tower in downtown Miami, in a joint venture with funds managed by Rialto Capital Management and Sabal Capital Partners. Dow Chemical sold the asset for $225 million, according to the Daily Miami News. L&B Realty has managed One Biscayne Tower on behalf of Dow…

CP Group JV Buys 1 Million Square Feet Miami Tower

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$4.8M Sale of Coral Way Medical Office Property Brokered

Marcus & Millichap has brokered the $4.8 million sale of a three-story, 15,250-square-foot medical office property located at 1790 Coral Way in Miami. Douglas Mandel and Adam Klein of Marcus & Millichap represented the seller. Miami-based L2 Partners, a limited liability company, was the seller. The seller will occupy about 30 percent of the building. The…

Edgewater’s Bay Park Condo Towers in $130M Bulk Buyout Deal

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Chetrit’s lender alleges it stole $2M insurance payout for South Beach hotel damage

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Lumber prices are splintering, futures drop 40% in June

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Zom wants to sell two South Florida apartment buildings for nearly $500M

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Ronny Finvarb buys Deerfield Beach mixed-use property for $9M

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FBE buys Lauderhill apartment complex for $95M

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Crow Holdings buys Delray Beach apartments for $112M

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Pebb Enterprises buys Boca Raton office building for $18M

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Tricera Capital, partners buy West Palm Beach office tower for $61M

Tricera Capital and three other partners bought One Clearlake office tower in West Palm Beach for $60.7 million. Tricera, NDT Development, New England Development and Rockpoint Group purchased the property at 250 South Australian Avenue, according to a news release. The seller, a joint venture between Dallas-based private equity real estate fund manager…

The post Miami Commercial Real Estate News July 7, 2021: Plan for WorldCenter Marriot Marquis Nixed, Land Trades; Mana Expands Downtown Assemblage; More… appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Chart: Miami-Dade Commercial Real Estate Sales June 2021

Miami MLS Number of Sales from July 2019 to June 2021 for a) Commercial, Industrial or b) Commercial, Business, Agricultural, or Industrial Vacant Land within Miami-Dade County, Florida

This chart illustrate the quantify of closed sales of commercial properties in Miami-Dade county, including both improved commercial property and vacant commercial land, that were booked in the Miami MLS for the two years ending June 2021. The number for last month, June 2021, remained elevated as sales have remained strong post-pandemic. It is not the blistering pace of March, but it is a strong number, regardless. Note that this is only for sales booked in the Miami Multiple Listing Service (MLS), which does not record all commercial property sales. It does, however, record many of them.

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Miami Commercial Real Estate News June 30, 2021: Condo Disaster Updates; One Biscayne Tower Sells for $225M, “Burdines” Dev Site for $46M; More…

Surfside condo “a time bomb:” Survivor’s lawsuit cites falling concrete, cracks and standing seawater in garage

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Champlain Towers South carried a $5M policy, insurers gear up for legal claims

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Fire Official Says Six Floors of Surfside Condo Are Believed to Be Underground

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State attorney’s office plans grand jury investigation into cause of Surfside collapse

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Surfside condo president’s April letter warned of more repairs required

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Dire Warnings Arose In Months Before Miami-Area Condo Tower Collapse

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County, cities rush to inspect older buildings in wake of Surfside collapse

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Emails, condo meeting minutes show Surfside official turned a blind eye to structural issues

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Engineer raised red flags more than 2 years before Surfside condo collapsed

A 2018 report raised major red flags about the structural integrity of the Champlain Towers South, the Surfside condo building that partially collapsed this week, killing at least five and trapping another 156. The engineer tasked to survey the building for its 40-year recertification found “abundant concrete cracking and spalling” as well as failed…

Details emerge in search for cause of fatal Surfside condo collapse

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159 still missing: Surfside rescue mission frustrates condo victims’ loved ones

As heavy rains complicated the search and rescue operation for possible survivors of the Champlain Towers South collapse, family and friends of people believed to be trapped beneath the rubble stood by at a reunification site in Surfside on Thursday. Maurice Waxman, whose friend Harry Rosenberg is among the 159 people still missing, said…

Photos: Devastation at Champlain Tower South

Police tape blocks access to the partially collapsed Champlain Tower South in Surfside on June 24. As of Friday, four people were confirmed dead and 159 missing at the 12-story building. (Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images) Police stand guard near the badly damaged building. (Photo by CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images) Rubble hangs from…

‘Walls Were Crumbling’ At 12-Story Florida Condo Building Before Deadly Collapse

A 12-story beachfront condominium building in Surfside, Florida, just north of Miami Beach, collapsed around 2 a.m. Thursday, killing at least one and leaving dozens more unaccounted for. The Champlain Towers South Condo building has 130 units and was completed in 1981, according to the Miami Herald. A massive search and rescue operation is underway after…

First lawsuit filed in deadly Surfside condo collapse

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After Miami Collapse: How to Prevent the Unthinkable

The deadly partial collapse of the 12-story Champlain Towers South condominium in Surfside, Fla., has left multifamily property owners and operators with many questions: How could this have happened? How can it be prevented from occurring again? What role may climate change play in placing buildings like this one in jeopardy? Jonathan Weislow, vice…

Miami CRE On What Condo Collapse Means For The Market

People in South Florida commercial real estate are saddened, confused and concerned about the collapse of Champlain Tower South in Surfside. “Our community, and the entire nation, is in shock and grieving over the collapse,” said Mike Pappas, president and CEO of The Keyes Co./Illustrated Properties. They are also thinking ahead to how the collapse is likely…

Supreme Court declines to lift CDC eviction ban

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JV buys One Biscayne Tower in downtown Miami for $225M

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JV Acquires Downtown Miami Office Tower

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Developer Jeff Berkowitz cancels plans for SkyRise Miami observation tower

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Partnership Breaks Ground on 224-Unit Wynwood Haus Apartments in Miami

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Swerdlow Group Breaks Ground on $300M Sawyer’s Walk Mixed-Use Development in Miami

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Opening of Jackson West in Doral finally firm

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Wix Is ​​Actively Seeking To Double Its Office Space In Miami – Commercial Observer

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Monarch Alternative Capital Acquires Majority Interest in Miami’s Citigroup Center

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UBS Group going hybrid as workers return

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Driveshack at Wynwood Walk, GoPuff in Coral Gables, other notable leases inked

Driveshack chose Wynwood Walk as its first Florida location. The entertainment and golf simulator concept signed a 10-year lease for 17,616 square feet at Wynwood Walk, a Thor Equities property. Michael Sullivan from Koniver Stern Group, and Jeremy Zidell and Tripp Russ from Rue represented Driveshack. It’s expected to open next year. State…

Trouble in EB-5 land: Congress at impasse on extension

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Edgewater investor shells out $46M for downtown Miami development “Burdines” site

Enrique Manhard and his partners, who recently sold land in Edgewater to the Kushner Companies, have reinvested in downtown Miami. The investors paid $46 million to buy the “Burdines” site, a 2.2-acre block at 16 Southeast Second Street, from Wharton Equity Partners and Cross Lake Partners The development site is zoned for a 2.2-million-square-foot…

Wharton Equity Partners, Cross Lake Partners Sell Development Site in Downtown Miami for $46M

Wharton Equity Partners and Cross Lake Partners LP have sold a 92,972-square-foot development site located at 16 SE 2nd St. in downtown Miami. Colliers International’s Urban Core Division facilitated the $46 million sale of the full city block, known as Miami Center. The property is currently home to a parking lot. Mika Mattingly of Colliers and Robert Given…

Downtown Miami Mixed-Use Development Site Commands $46M

A New York-based venture of Wharton Equity Partners and Cross Lake Partners has sold one of the largest undeveloped parcels in downtown Miami, zoned for a 2 million-square-foot mixed-use development. According to South Florida Business Journal, South American businessman Enrique Manhard picked up the 2.2-acre site for $46 million. Zoned…

Fifty former Sears stores go to market

The owner of the defunct Sears franchise is looking to unload a chunk of properties. Andrea Olshan, chief executive officer of the real estate investment trust Seritage Growth Properties that bankrupt Sears formed five years ago, wants to sell 40 to 50 former stores to generate cash, Bloomberg News reported. The sales will also allow Seritage to…

Biden extends CDC eviction moratorium one more time

The Biden administration Thursday extended the federal ban on evictions for a fourth and likely final time, pushing a moratorium set to sunset at the end of the month until July 31. Landlord groups like the National Multifamily Housing Council criticized the extension, calling the move “out of step with the significant progress made in…

Brookfield pays $26M for Doral warehouse

Brookfield Asset Management bought the Bristol Logistics Center in Doral for $26.3 million. The Toronto-based alternative asset manager purchased the building at 1900 Northwest 92nd Avenue from an affiliate of San Francisco-based Bristol Group, according to a news release. Larry Genet and Tom O’Loughlin were part of the CBRE team that represented…

Travel Tech Company Amadeus Downsizing in Doral, Puts 85K SF on the Market

As high-profile newcomers snatch up Miami leases, Amadeus, a leading travel software company, is downsizing its footprint in the city, Commercial Observer has learned. The tech company is vacating its entire North American headquarters at One Park Square in Doral, Fla., placing the entire 84,110 square feet on the market. The global firm is looking for a new…

Doral Bans Gambling Amid Trump-Owned Casino Prospects

The Doral city council earlier this month voted 4-0 to ban gambling and casinos from the city unless approved by residents in a referendum, weeks after Gov. Ron DeSantis negotiated a $500 million gaming deal with the Seminole Tribe of Florida, reports the Miami Herald. Critics believe the compact was tailored to allow casinos at properties such as the Trump…

Landlords in peril, tenants in distress: Expiring eviction bans foreshadow national reckoning

In Connecticut, real estate attorney Ori Spiegel hadn’t heard much from landlords as the end of his state’s eviction ban approached. He expects that to change, starting today. “There are many who I’ve asked to call me back on June 30,” Spiegel said. “The governor has often waited until the last minute to extend the moratorium…”

BTI Partners buys Hollywood Bread Building for $11M, plans multifamily tower

BTI Partners plans a 25-story multifamily project on the site of the Hollywood Bread Building, after buying the property for $11 million. Fort Lauderdale-based BTI Partners and its equity partner Bridge Investment Group bought the Bread Building at 1747 Van Buren Street, according to a news release. Steve Kohn and Chris Moyer were part of the Cushman…

KPC Properties buys Plantation apartment complex for $46M

KPC Properties bought a Plantation apartment complex for $46 million. The Fort Lauderdale-based group bought Axis at One Pine at 1 South Pine Island Road from Pensam Capital, according to Tal Frydman, one of the brokers on the deal. Frydman worked with Avery Klann, both of Newmark, to close the sale. The five-story complex totals 209 units and more than 228,275 sf…

Batmasians buy Deerfield Beach multifamily complex for $46M

James and Marta Batmasian’s investment firm bought a Deerfield Beach apartment complex for $46 million. Their firm, Investments Limited, bought the 212-unit Lakes at Deerfield at 1100 South Military Trail from GFI Capital Resources Group, according to a news release from the brokers involved. The deal breaks down to $216,981 per unit. Tal Frydman…

Avanti buys Boynton Beach apartments for $105M

LeCesse Development Corporation sold a 341-unit apartment complex in Boynton Beach for $105 million. Skye at Boynton Beach LLC, tied to LeCesse, sold 500 Ocean Apartments at 101 South Federal Highway to four Delaware entities. Three are tied to Denver-based Avanti Residential and one is linked to a real estate investment trust, records show. The deal equates to…

Downtown West Palm Beach office building, parking lot sell for $20M

The Galleria International, an office building in West Palm Beach, sold for $20 million, in a deal that included a parking lot, The Real Deal has learned. Galleria International LLC sold the 42,263-square-foot office building at 301 Clematis Street to Clematis Banyan Investors LP, according to a press release. Safe Parking LLC sold the 30,000-square-foot parking lot adjacent…

The post Miami Commercial Real Estate News June 30, 2021: Condo Disaster Updates; One Biscayne Tower Sells for $225M, “Burdines” Dev Site for $46M; More… appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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