Video: LeaseLock’s Greg Willett, Andrew Bowen Discuss Multifamily Performance & Transaction Volume

Multifamily Market Insights: Navigating 2025 with Optimism and Strategy

On a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the host welcomed Greg Willett, Chief Economist, and Andrew Bowen, SVP of Strategic Partnerships—both from LeaseLock—to unpack the state of the multifamily market. Their in-depth discussion illuminated the current challenges and future opportunities shaping the multifamily landscape as we move through 2025 and into a highly anticipated recovery in 2026 and 2027.


Transaction Volume: Signs of Life After a Lull

After a sluggish period, multifamily transaction volume is poised for a comeback. Greg Willett noted that while 2024 started off slowly, recent drops in 10-year Treasury yields are helping deals move forward. There’s a growing sense of FOMO—fear of missing out—among investors, many of whom are eager to enter the market before fundamentals improve further. “You want to get some deals done to take full advantage of that runup that is probably ahead of us,” Willett said.


Deliveries vs. Demand: An Imbalance in Timing

While the U.S. faces a long-term housing shortage, the near-term has been flooded with new Class A apartment deliveries, especially in Sunbelt markets. The imbalance stems from a sharp decline in new starts, creating a lagging pipeline that will lead to tighter supply—and upward pressure on rents—in the next two years. Andrew Bowen likened it to weather: “We might have a drought overall, but if it rains too much in one day, we get flooding.”


Rent Trends: Flat Today, But Tomorrow Looks Bright

Rents have largely plateaued, but that’s likely temporary. With supply tapering off and demand expected to rebound, especially by 2026, rent growth is forecasted to pick up again. However, short-term fundamentals face headwinds: weakening consumer confidence and affordability constraints may dampen demand growth in 2025.

Bowen highlighted a bright spot—renewal rates are up significantly. Compared to 15-year averages, renewals are outperforming by 350 basis points. Operators are seeing a higher premium when residents renew rather than move, creating major NOI advantages.


Affordability: The Elephant in the Room

Despite income gains in recent years, housing affordability remains a pressing concern. Roughly 40% of renters are considered rent-burdened, spending over 30% of their income on rent. Add in rising credit card debt and economic uncertainty, and it’s clear why affordability is top-of-mind for the industry.

LeaseLock is tackling this with deposit alternatives that reduce move-in costs. “57% of Americans can’t cover an unexpected $1,000 expense,” Bowen said, citing a Bankrate study. Reducing upfront rental costs could make moving—and renting—more accessible.


Development Outlook: A Strategic Slowdown

According to Willett, multifamily development has bottomed out and should begin a slow rebound. There’s money re-entering the development pipeline, especially in underbuilt segments. However, regulatory hurdles and construction costs continue to steer developers toward luxury Class A product, where projects are more financially feasible.

Bowen hopes for more incentives to support workforce housing, including revisiting Opportunity Zones and tapping into federal land for development. A recent Wall Street Journal article noted that 7% of federal land is located in housing-impacted areas—a potential game changer if unlocked strategically.


Build-to-Rent and Operational Shifts

Build-to-rent (BTR) communities aren’t drastically disrupting the multifamily sector yet—at least from an investment standpoint. But operationally, they’re setting new standards. BTR’s emphasis on efficiency and centralized management is influencing traditional multifamily operations. Bowen said, “Every organization of any size is adjusting right now to figure out how they redo their operational model.”


Investment Strategy: Know Your Market

For investors, 2025 presents a transitional window. Willett advises looking beyond metro averages and digging into neighborhood-level trends to uncover hidden gems. The best deals may be in stabilized Class A assets or distressed Class C opportunities.


Final Takeaways

Both guests emphasized preparation and perspective. Willett sees 2025 as a bridge year: “Get ready now to take advantage of what’s coming.” Bowen urged operators to prioritize retention and resident experience: “The business of running properties is hospitality.”

In short, the multifamily sector is weathering a temporary storm—with plenty of sunshine on the forecast.

The post Video: LeaseLock’s Greg Willett, Andrew Bowen Discuss Multifamily Performance & Transaction Volume appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Miami Commercial Real Estate News April 2, 2025: $3B Little River MXU Development Approved; $2B MXU Development Announced for Midtown Miami; More…

Miami-Dade County Commission Approves $3B Little River District Mixed-Use Development 

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Miami-Dade approves Swerdlow, Related Urban ground leases for nearly 6K affordable and workforce apartments

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$3B Mixed-Use Little River District Approved: New Details

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600 Miami Worldcenter’s Ascent to 32 Stories Accelerates in Downtown Miami

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$2B Mixed-Use Development Announced In Midtown Miami

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Santander Tower Submitted To FAA, Nearly Matching 70-Story Four Seasons Height

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This mega complex will replace what used to be The Wharf Miami

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First Crane Installed To Build Ultra-Luxury Apartment Tower In Edgewater

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Miami-Dade Second Fastest Growing County In The Nation Last Year

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Developer Gets Financing For 85-Unit Multifamily in The Roads, Groundbreaking April

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Brickell Property Could Be Added To Rapid Transit Zone

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1600 Edgewater Unanimously Approved By UDRB

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Yakol to launch sales of Shigeru Ban condos in Miami’s Upper Buena Vista

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Related Group promotes Jon Paul Pérez to CEO

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Lease roundup: Ideal Nutrition opening at Prologis warehouse, hospice provider Vitas expands in Miramar

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Video: K.C. Conway on the Impact of Tariffs & Administration Policies

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FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, March 2025

Every quarter, FOMC meeting participants submit their projections of key economic indicators. The committee releases the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), containing the median, central tendency, and range of these projections: civilian unemployment rate headline and core PCEPI real GDP growth and the federal funds rate. Projections are generally provided for the current…

The post Miami Commercial Real Estate News April 2, 2025: $3B Little River MXU Development Approved; $2B MXU Development Announced for Midtown Miami; More… appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Video: K.C. Conway on the Impact of Tariffs & Administration Policies

Tariffs, Inflation, and Real Estate: A Deep Dive into Today’s Economy with K.C. Conway

In a fast-moving episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show’s host sat down with renowned economist K.C. Conway to unpack what’s happening in today’s economy—and what it all means for commercial real estate. With topics ranging from tariffs and inflation to the fallout from government spending cuts and shifts in consumer confidence, the conversation offered a sobering yet insightful view into what lies ahead for investors, developers, and industry professionals.


Tariffs: Strategic Moves with Wide-Ranging Impact

The conversation kicked off with a timely and complex topic: tariffs. As Conway explained, President Trump’s new round of tariffs, slated for implementation in April, are far more strategic than many initially realize. While on the surface it may appear that Mexico and Canada are in the administration’s crosshairs, the real targets are China and Europe. Conway pointed out a loophole in “Trump Tariffs 1.0” that allowed foreign manufacturers to sidestep tariffs by moving final production steps to tariff-exempt countries like Mexico. This time, Trump is aiming to close that loophole.

What’s the result? A potentially massive impact on U.S. manufacturing, particularly the automotive sector. With major players like BMW, Mercedes, and VW operating plants in the southern U.S., any disruption in supply chains could ripple through jobs and production.


Inflation, the Fed, and Consumer Behavior

From there, the discussion shifted to inflation. Tariffs on steel and aluminum could sharply raise construction costs—especially for industrial buildings, which rely heavily on metal. Conway estimates steel-related components could spike by 25–35%.

In response, consumers are already pulling back. Confidence levels have plummeted, and spending is down across the board. Conway cited University of Michigan data showing a 27% drop in consumer confidence in just 90 days, adding that many are postponing big purchases like new vehicles.

On the policy side, the Federal Reserve appears unwilling—or unable—to help. Conway noted growing tension between Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, with the Fed reluctant to cut interest rates amid rising inflation.


D.O.E. Cuts and Government Job Losses

A particularly urgent issue raised was the massive reduction in government spending—referred to in shorthand as “Doge” during the interview. Trump’s moves to eliminate entire departments (like Education) and shrink others (like the CDC) could result in the loss of 400,000 to 600,000 federal jobs, pushing unemployment well above 5%. Conway warned of downstream effects on state-level funding, university programs, and tourism, especially in states that depend on federal contracts or programs.


Sector-by-Sector Real Estate Outlook

Despite the challenges, Conway sees bright spots across several real estate sectors:

✅Industrial

Still in demand, especially for warehousing and distribution. New construction may slow due to cost, but occupancy remains strong.

✅Multifamily Housing

With single-family homes increasingly unaffordable and supply limited, multifamily remains resilient. Lower delivery volumes in 2025 could drive rents higher and make sub-6% cap rate deals more attractive.

🟡Retail

The “big box apocalypse” is over, but small-box retail (e.g., pharmacies, bank branches) now faces challenges. Conway sees opportunity in repurposing these smaller footprints for clinics, offices, and service providers.

🟡Office

High-rise urban towers remain risky, but Conway is bullish on suburban and mid-rise office buildings. Many are trading well below replacement cost, especially in high-growth Sunbelt markets like Orlando and Miami.

🟡Hotels

Destination hotels are thriving, while convention-centric urban properties lag. As capex-heavy assets, they require strategic repositioning, especially in tax-heavy states like Colorado.


Regional Migration and Market Opportunities

One of Conway’s favorite tools? The annual U-Haul migration report. As more people leave high-cost, high-regulation states like California and New York, Sunbelt and Midwest states are the big winners. Markets like Texas, Georgia, and the Carolinas are experiencing job growth, population inflows, and corresponding real estate opportunities.

Conway also highlighted the financial sector’s explosive growth in Dallas, which may soon rival New York as the country’s financial capital.


Advice for Investors: Be Patient, Be Flexible

As a final note, Conway urged real estate professionals to avoid overreacting to economic swings. In his words, “We don’t know what hand we’re playing until Trump deals the cards.” With frequent policy shifts and regulatory surprises, Conway recommends staying close to your capital partners and banking relationships, and being ready to pivot.


The Takeaway

This episode made one thing clear: we’re in a time of recalibration. Between aggressive tariffs, a hands-off Fed, government cutbacks, and shifting migration patterns, the commercial real estate landscape is in flux. But as K.C. Conway emphasized, there’s still opportunity—for those who do their homework, stay nimble, and invest strategically.

Whether you’re in retail, industrial, housing, or office, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of both challenge and transformation.

The post Video: K.C. Conway on the Impact of Tariffs & Administration Policies appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Miami Commercial Real Estate News March 26, 2025: Wynwood Norte Projects Approved; 230-Unit Multifamily Trades for $72M; More…

Sabet and Evolve’s proposed projects in Miami’s Wynwood Norte and near Edgewater get green light

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Florida Memorial University plans $1B+ revamp with Redwood Dev Co

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Omni area getting 33-story 282-unit residential tower

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RUDG Seeks Approval for 19-Story Workforce Housing Development at 1175 NW South River Drive in Miami

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700+ Foot Cranes Filed For Villa Residences Construction Site In Edgewater

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Two Miami-Dade Cities Buying Up Commercial Property

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Photos: Under-Construction Casa Bella Residences Near Level 40

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Southeast Industrial Boom Driven By Population Growth And Strategic Infrastructure

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Video: MSCI Research Executive Director Jim Costello Provides Retail Market Update & Forecast

In a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show’s host sat down with veteran economist Jim Costello of MSCI to explore the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the U.S. retail real estate sector. With over 30 years of experience analyzing market cycles, Costello provided valuable insights into how retail is faring in the wake of shifting…

The Byproducts of Eliminating Property Taxes

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Strong Job Gains Meets High Apartment Supply Across Florida

Job growth has been significant across the state of Florida in the current cycle, which would typically lead to solid apartment occupancy and rent growth. But apartment performance in the Sunshine State has been subdued by staggering new supply volumes. Florida added 950,000 jobs in the 2020–2024-time frame, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Fed: an update on the breakeven inflation rate

Expectations about inflation are an important indicator of actual future inflation: If market participants expect inflation to be higher, they may elevate prices, increasing the actual inflation rate and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. In this FRED Blog post, we compare “breakeven” inflation expectations with actual inflation to see how they’ve both evolved over time.

The post Miami Commercial Real Estate News March 26, 2025: Wynwood Norte Projects Approved; 230-Unit Multifamily Trades for $72M; More… appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Video: MSCI Research Executive Director Jim Costello Provides Retail Property Market Update & Forecast

In a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show’s host sat down with veteran economist Jim Costello of MSCI to explore the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the U.S. retail real estate sector. With over 30 years of experience analyzing market cycles, Costello provided valuable insights into how retail is faring in the wake of shifting interest rates, inflation concerns, evolving consumer behavior, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Note that this discussion is national in scope, thus aspects may be less relevant to South Florida commercial property.

Signs of Recovery in Retail Transactions

One of the most notable themes from the conversation was the recent rebound in retail property transaction volume. According to Costello, Q4 2024 saw a meaningful uptick in sales—not driven by a single blockbuster deal, but rather by a healthy spread of “singles and doubles.” This signals renewed confidence and activity among investors who have spent much of the past two years waiting out market volatility caused by rapid interest rate hikes.

He emphasized that while the market isn’t back to the heights of 2021 and early 2022—when low interest rates fueled record valuations—it’s stabilizing. Investors are gaining clarity on pricing, with many recalibrating expectations around cap rates and future growth, rather than chasing a return to pandemic-era peaks.

Interest Rates and Investor Mindset

The conversation naturally turned to interest rates and their impact on investment behavior. The host noted that some buyers and sellers are still in “wait-and-see” mode, hoping for rate cuts. Costello explained that while the Fed has signaled a cautious approach to lowering rates, uncertainty around inflation and federal policy continues to widen the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the Fed Funds Rate.

Despite this uncertainty, Costello stressed that well-located assets with stable cash flow remain attractive. He added that private investors have been leading the charge in recent retail acquisitions—perhaps due to their greater flexibility compared to institutions, which often face reputational risk if they move too early.

Fundamentals: Rent Growth and Occupancy

Retail fundamentals are proving more resilient than many had expected. Costello shared data from MSCI’s U.S. Quarterly Property Index showing that high-quality malls and lifestyle centers have bounced back dramatically from their COVID-era lows. As of late 2024, NOI per square foot for these assets was nearly 100% above pre-COVID levels.

Meanwhile, neighborhood and community centers—which tend to be anchored by grocery stores and essential services—have shown steady performance, with NOI per square foot up over 12% from pre-pandemic figures. These more utilitarian retail centers have remained relatively insulated from economic fluctuations, further boosting investor confidence.

Triple Net Retail: The Outlier

One area lagging behind is the triple net (NNN) retail segment. These single-tenant properties, often leased to national brands, are typically structured more like bonds, with limited rent growth. As Costello noted, they’ve seen significant cap rate expansion in the past year, rising from the 6% range toward 7%, with no clear sign of stabilization yet. Investors are pricing in bond-like risk, especially in a higher-rate environment.

Tariffs, Inflation & Consumer Spending

The discussion also touched on macroeconomic risks—particularly tariffs and their potential inflationary effects. Costello explained that while previous tariff rounds were largely absorbed by companies (hurting corporate margins rather than consumer wallets), the current economic climate may not be so forgiving. If businesses pass those costs onto consumers, retail spending—and by extension, retail property performance—could take a hit.

Despite these risks, anecdotal signs point to resilient consumer behavior. The show host observed that retail spaces in markets like Atlanta remain busy, reinforcing the strength of experiential retail and mixed-use developments that combine living, working, and entertainment.

Construction, Supply Constraints & Labor

Another factor supporting retail’s recovery is the slowdown in new supply. High interest rates, rising construction costs, and labor shortages have dramatically reduced new development activity. Costello also highlighted a long-term structural trend: declining retail space per capita. Much of the oversupply built during the 20th-century suburban boom is being demolished, which helps concentrate demand and support rent growth for surviving properties.

Where the Opportunities Are

Looking ahead, Costello sees opportunity in several areas:

  • Triple Net Retail: While currently challenged, this sector could present upside once interest rates stabilize and investors reprice risk more accurately.
  • Distressed or Underperforming Assets: Buyers with operational expertise can add value by improving management or repositioning assets.
  • Credit Funds & High-Yield Lending: With some deals facing funding gaps, private credit funds are stepping in to provide mezzanine debt or bridge capital.
  • Aggregations & Efficiency Plays: As the market matures, there may be room for portfolio consolidations that yield operational synergies.

2025 Outlook: A Market in Transition

Overall, the outlook for retail in 2025 is cautiously optimistic. The worst of the interest rate shock appears to be behind us, pricing is beginning to stabilize, and demand fundamentals remain strong in many segments. However, uncertainty around inflation, policy shifts, and tariffs means that investors must continue to build scenarios into their underwriting.

Costello’s final takeaway? Success in the current market will rely less on passive cap rate compression and more on savvy asset selection, efficient operations, and creative capital structuring.

The post Video: MSCI Research Executive Director Jim Costello Provides Retail Property Market Update & Forecast appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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