Video: Trepp’s Lonnie Hendry Provides Loan Delinquency Update & Forecast for 2025

In a recent episode of America’s Commercial Real Estate Show, the show host and guest Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer at Trepp, delved into pressing topics shaping the commercial real estate (CRE) landscape. The discussion, centered around distressed properties, the state of debt markets, and office sector challenges, painted a comprehensive picture of current industry dynamics and potential trends for 2025. This conversation is national in scope, thus observations can apply less to Miami area commercial real estate.

Key Market Observations

#1. Office Sector Distress
The office sector continues to face headwinds, with delinquencies reaching an all-time high of 11.01% in 2024. Hendry highlighted that approximately $7 billion worth of office CMBS loans are delinquent, a stark indication of the challenges in this segment. Factors contributing to this include shifting work dynamics, with some tenants unable to adapt to changing market values or operational inefficiencies. However, optimism is emerging as certain buildings are being redeveloped or converted to alternative uses, with some sellers beginning to adjust their price expectations.

#2. Multifamily Sector
Although the multifamily sector experienced an uptick in delinquencies, finishing 2024 just under 5%, it remains less distressed than office properties. The sector’s resilience reflects strong underlying demand and its ability to adapt to changing consumer needs.

#3. Lender Strategies and Market Adjustments
Banks have recalibrated their strategies, focusing on clearing underperforming assets from their books. Hendry noted an increase in portfolio sales and a more significant role for private equity lenders, who are stepping in to fill gaps left by traditional banks. These non-traditional lenders are often better positioned to handle distressed properties and offer terms that reflect the current market environment.

#4. Commercial Financing Trends
The CMBS market saw a resurgence, with origination volumes nearly tripling from 2023 to 2024, signaling a potential path forward for commercial real estate financing. Agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also saw strong activity in late 2024, suggesting renewed confidence in the lending market as 2025 begins.

#5. Return-to-Office (RTO) Initiatives
Major players such as Amazon and JPMorgan have announced return-to-office mandates, potentially signaling a shift in workplace trends. Additionally, government initiatives to optimize office leases may act as a catalyst for renewed activity in the sector.

Looking Ahead: 2025 Outlook

While some industry experts predict that early 2025 will mirror the latter half of 2024, there is cautious optimism about the latter part of the year. Factors influencing this include:

  • Economic Policies: With inflationary concerns tied to new fiscal policies under the incoming administration, lenders and borrowers are preparing for potential market adjustments.
  • Transaction Activity: As sellers adjust to market realities, transaction velocity is expected to increase, particularly for office properties and distressed assets.
  • Capital Inflows: Institutional investors are showing renewed interest, with large transactions and refinancings signaling confidence in long-term recovery.

Final Thoughts

The conversation underscored the importance of adaptability in a rapidly evolving market. For brokers, lenders, and investors, opportunities exist in areas like distressed asset acquisition, creative financing solutions, and market repositioning. As Hendry aptly noted, those who engage proactively in this environment are poised to achieve significant returns.

The host shared advice to industry players was clear: embrace the challenges of the current market, maintain focus on fundamentals, and leverage relationships to navigate uncertainties. As 2025 unfolds, the CRE industry remains one to watch for both challenges and opportunities.

The post Video: Trepp’s Lonnie Hendry Provides Loan Delinquency Update & Forecast for 2025 appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 15, 2025: Entertainment Development Planned for Marlins Stadium; More…

Miami Marlins, Cordish Partner to Develop Miami Live! Entertainment Destination at loanDepot Park

Major League Baseball’s Miami Marlins have formed a partnership with The Cordish Companies to develop Miami Live! at loanDepot Park, the home ballpark of the Marlins. The entertainment destination in the city’s Little Havana neighborhood will feature indoor-outdoor dining and entertainment spaces aimed at elevating the fan experience, including year-round space activations.

‘Transformational’ Entertainment Development Planned At Marlins Stadium

The Miami Marlins have announced a partnership with The Cordish Companies to develop an entertainment district at their stadium. The new district will be known as Miami Live!, and will be similar to others developed by Cordish in Arlington, Texas and Kansas City. Miami Live! will include indoor and outdoor dining, entertainment, and gathering areas. It will be located…

56-Story Casa Bella More Than Halfway Up

The Casa Bella Residences by B&B Italia tower is now more than halfway up. Contractors were scheduled to pour the 30th floor of the building this week, according to a social media post by Director of Sales Olga Monson. The building’s parking garage is scheduled to be completed at the end of this month. Top off of the tower at 56 stories is scheduled for summer of this year.

526-Unit Tower Across From MiamiCentral Scheduled For UDRB Hearing

Downtown Miami’s First and Fifth tower is scheduled for a hearing today before Miami’s Urban Development Review Board. Plans had been submitted to the UDRB in November, but the application was withdrawn. First and Fifth is planned to rise 45 stories, 517 feet and include: 526 residential units 6,638 square feet of commercial 161 parking spaces ODP is the architect.

North Corridor Rail Service Pushed Back To 2037

Completion of the North Corridor has been pushed back, according to Miami Today. The North Corridor is a planned rail extension from the existing Metrorail to Broward County, with a stop at Hard Rock Stadium. It is part of Miami Dade’s SMART rapid transit plan. It would run 10 miles, with 8 stations. Completion is now projected for 2037, according to a presentation to the…

Pre-Application Filed For 398 Units In Rapid Transit Zone

Related Urban Development Group has filed plans for a housing development in the Rapid Transit System-Development Zone. The project name is listed as Claude Pepper in the filing. Units would be “fully affordable.” Conceptual plans show the project would include: 398 units 4,400 square foot community center 410 parking spaces CFE is the architect. The nearest Metrorail station…

Work Underway On Pedestrian Bridge At Entrance To South Beach

A developer mobilized yesterday to begin construction on a colorful pedestrian bridge at the entrance to South Beach, according to Local10. The bridge is being designed by French artist Daniel Buren, and is titled Walking In, Along and Under the Colors. Pedestrians will be able to cross from the South of Fifth baywalk to a recently completed park. The park and bridge are being built…

Apple’s ‘Most Sustainable Store’ Opening At Miami Worldcenter With Biophilic Garden

Apple has announced an opening date for a new store at Miami Worldcenter. The new Apple Store at Miami Worldcenter will open on January 24. It will be Apple’s “most sustainable store.” The store will include a biophilic garden using natural materials and a variety of plants. It will become the tenth Apple Store in Miami. Apple also reportedly signed a lease for around 45ksf..

Total Demolition Permit Submitted For Brickell Key Mandarin Site

A total demolition permit has been applied for at the Brickell Key site where The Residences at The Mandarin Oriental, Miami is planned. The permit was applied for on January 10 and is not yet in review. According to the filing, a total of 527,824 square feet will de demolished, at an estimated cost of $1,072,500. The BG Group is listed as the demolition contractor. The existing Mandarin…

62-Story Aria Reserve North Tower Making ‘Rapid Progress’

In Edgewater, the under-construction North Tower at Aria Reserve passed level 20 last week, according to developer Melo Group. Completion of the 383-unit South Tower at Aria Reserve is also expected soon. Aria Reserve will include two 62-story condo towers, said to be the tallest waterfront dual residential towers in the United States. A foundation pour for the South Tower…

City of Miami to Break Ground on Eight-Story Administration Building at Miami Freedom Park

The City of Miami is set to break ground this week on a new eight-story administration building within the Miami Freedom Park complex. The ceremony, scheduled for January 15 at 9:30 a.m. at 1802 NW 37th Avenue, will follow the State of the City Address delivered by Mayor Francis X. Suarez at the same location. The project will launch construction of the 382,592-square-foot…

Groundbreaking Scheduled For Miami Administration Building at Miami Freedom Park

The City of Miami will break ground next week on its new administration building at Miami Freedom Park. The City of Miami Administrative Building will rise 8 stories and span over 382,592 square feet. An attached parking garage will have space for up to 889 vehicles. Arquitectonica is the architect. Adler Development is the developer. Moss Construction…

Map: A look at CGI Merchant’s unraveling real estate investments amid mounting debt woes

Raoul Thomas is having a helluva year. Thomas’ Miami-based CGI Merchant Group is getting pummeled with foreclosure filings and reports of delinquent loan payments, putting nearly its entire portfolio amassed over two decades into debt trouble. It’s not the first tough time for CGI Merchant. The firm weathered the pandemic slowdown. But the current economic headwinds…

First & Fifth: 45-Story Mixed-Use Tower Submitted to UDRB for Approval in Downtown Miami

A 45-story mixed-use development, First & Fifth, has been submitted to Miami’s Urban Development Review Board (UDRB) for approval. Designed by ODP Architecture & Design and proposed by developer Oak Row Equities under the 49 NW 5TH STREET LLC, the 530-foot-tall tower is planned for 49 NW 5th Street and 50 NW 6th Street in Miami’s Overtown neighborhood.

Univista Insurance mogul Ivan Herrera launches commercial development family office

Insurance king Ivan Herrera is jumping into commercial real estate development after partially selling his Univista empire for $700 million, The Real Deal has learned. His new firm, Unicapital Asset Management Group, is developing a new office building near Doral, and is planning a multifamily project in Hialeah and mixed-use project in Allapattah, Jose Cueto, a Unicapital…

Developers’ Delicate Dance To Build High-Rises In Wynwood Without Ruining It

In Wynwood, walls are canvases, sidewalks are sketchbooks and street signs double as sticker galleries. The Miami neighborhood’s signature public art has made it a magnet for tourists and developers itching to get in on the action. Developers Hidrock Properties and Robert Finvarb Cos., for example, are moving forward on a 39-story apartment tower at 2534 N. Miami Ave.

Developers Propose 35-Unit Condo at 895 N.E. 131st Street in North Miami

Two developers hope to proceed with a condominium in Miami-Dade County. Our sources indicate that the 10-story venture (dubbed “Cocoanut Avenue”) would comprise close to 56,000 square feet of new construction, featuring 35 two-bedroom homes. Floorplans would span 850 to 1,116 square feet, and there would be 48 parking spots, averaging about 1.37 per unit.

Demolition Permit Issued For Wynwood Crossing Site at 2000 North Miami Avenue

The City of Miami has issued a total demolition permit for the site of 2000 Wynwood, paving the way for a new 12-story mixed-use development in the heart of Wynwood. The permit, approved on January 2 and issued on January 6, lists BG Group as the demolition contractor, with work estimated at $13,000. The permit was initially applied for in July 2023….

First Crane Installed At 427-Unit Excel Miami

Vertical construction is now underway at Excel Miami, which will have 427 apartments. Shawmut Design and Construction, a  $2 billion national construction management firm, said on December 10 that it had broken ground on the development. A groundbreaking ceremony was held December 9. At the time, Shawmut said a mat foundation pour would be completed in weeks…

Miami Office Leasing Slows Further, But Rents Keep On Rising

The average office rent in Miami is nearly 17% higher than it was a year ago, according to a fourth-quarter market report from Savills, a spike that is pushing more tenants out of prime markets in search of more affordable alternatives. Every major submarket in Miami experienced positive rent growth after remaining relatively stable at the end of 2023, according to…

Calta scores $30M construction loan for Coral Gables townhomes

The Calta Group scored a $30 million construction loan for its planned Via Veneto townhomes in Coral Gables. The Coral Gables-based developer, led by brothers Ignazio and Gaetano Caltagirone, secured financing for the 10-unit project from Banesco USA, according to a press release. Construction for Via Veneto, planned for the site at 915 and 920 Palermo Avenue…

Miami Beach Ordered To Fully Reopen Ocean Drive To Cars

A judge has ordered the City of Miami Beach to reinstate two-way car traffic on Ocean Drive, according to the Herald. The court order came after The Clevelander challenged the current one-way configuration in court, saying it couldn’t properly operate a business. Miami Beach initially closed the street to cars during the pandemic, and for the past three years has allowed only…

Big 4 Ad Agency Ditching Brickell For Coworking Space In Coral Gables

Global media and advertising conglomerate WPP has left Miami’s financial district behind, downsizing by more than two-thirds to new digs in Coral Gables. London-based WPP has vacated its 73K SF office space at Brickell Key Centre II and taken 25K SF with WeWork in Coral Gables. WPP subsidiary Hogarth Worldwide moved to the two-building complex on Brickell Key…

More trouble: Another lender accuses Shoma’s Masoud Shojaee of not repaying loan

For the second time in a one-month span, Shoma Group CEO Masoud Shojaee is being sued for allegedly welching on a mortgage debt. City National Bank of Florida filed a foreclosure complaint this week against Shojaee, as trustee for a trust in his name, and an entity he manages that owns a 12th floor condominium at Gables Club Tower at 60 Edgewater Drive in Coral Gables.

Industrial vacancies up across South Florida in the fourth quarter, as rents drop in Broward and Palm Beach counties

South Florida’s industrial market took a hit in the fourth quarter of last year, as vacancies rose across the tri-county region, and rents dropped in Broward and Palm Beach counties, according to a recently released report. Since the pandemic, industrial landlords have reaped the benefits of Florida’s population boom and the need for e-commerce distribution facilities.

Lease roundup: Attorney referral provider moving HQ to Coral Gables, La Mar by Gastón Acurio finds new Brickell home

An attorney referral service firm will move its headquarters to Coral Gables. The No-Fault Group, which connects people with legal and medical care following an accident, leased 21,800 square feet at 2990 Ponce de Leon Boulevard, according to the broker’s news release. Stephen Rutchik and Kevin Gonzalez of Colliers represented the landlord and the tenant.

Consultant alleges Michael Stern’s partner Gianluca Vacchi owes $1.7M in fees tied to condo developments

A Naples-based project consultant is accusing developer Michael Stern’s partner, Italian entrepreneur Gianluca Vacchi, of stiffing him out of $1.7 million in fees tied to his financial evaluations of three planned condo projects in Miami and Miami Beach. The developments represent part of a $4 billion pipeline. Genesis Project Management and Consulting, led by John Stamboulis…

Oasis Hallandale West Tower Tops Off At 275 Feet

The West Tower at Oasis Hallandale has topped off, and a second tower will soon break ground.. The 25-story West Tower topped off with 75% of units sold. A second condo tower is planned to break ground later this quarter. Sales recently launched for those units. Each tower will have 250 units, for a total of 500. The project has already delivered 60,000 square feet of retail…

Construction Tops Out on Oasis Hallandale’s West Tower in Hallandale Beach

Oasis Hallandale, a $370 million mixed-use development located at 1000 East Hallandale Beach Boulevard, has officially topped out its West Tower. This marks a significant milestone in the project’s construction, led by MGM Construction. With the West Tower now structurally complete and 75% of its residences sold, the development is gaining momentum as one…

Map: Here is Broward County’s condo development pipeline

South Florida’s condo developers want to build, baby, build –– in Broward County. Long overshadowed by Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, its more expensive neighbors to the north and south, it seems Broward is getting its moment in the sun. In the wake of South Florida’s pandemic real estate boom, developers have snapped up project sites and are betting big…

Developer Proposes What Could be Fort Lauderdale’s Tallest Building at 315 NE 3rd Street

100 Las Olas could be unseated as Fort Lauderdale’s tallest building. Arosa Development has proposed a mixed-use 54-story tower that would offer residences, commercial space, and parking. Here’s what’s in store. Our sources report that the venture would measure 600 above grade, occupying a 27,591-square-foot that currently serves as a parking lot located between…

54-Story, 600-Foot Tower Planned In Fort Lauderdale

Plans have been filed for what would be the tallest building in Fort Lauderdale. The tower is planned to rise 54 stories, or 600 feet above ground level, which is taller than any existing building in the city. The building is proposed to include: 607 residential units 3,727 square feet of commercial 659 parking spaces Units will range from in size from studios to 3-bedrooms.

Condo Owners Seeking $23M For Fort Lauderdale Building They Evacuated

Springbrook Gardens, a 77-year-old waterfront condominium complex in Fort Lauderdale, has been listed for sale just three months after residents were forced to evacuate when the building was deemed to be structurally unsafe. The condominium association has tapped Sam Gaita of The Corcoran Group and Donna Carbonara of Douglas Elliman to market their 28K SF site…

Developers add 17 condos to planned hotel on Las Olas in Fort Lauderdale

What began as a mid-size hotel development on East Las Olas Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale has morphed into plans for the Whitfield, a boutique hotel and condominium with penthouses priced at $15 million. After winning site plan approval for a 10-story hotel in 2021, Fort Lauderdale-based developers Steve Hudson and Charlie Ladd redesigned the project as a 12-story building…

Accesso Acquires Sunrise Office Asset

Sawgrass Lake Center went through cosmetic renovations in 2017. Image courtesy of CommercialEdge Accesso Partners has acquired Sawgrass Lake Center, a 240,000-square-foot office building in Sunrise, Fla., a Fort Lauderdale submarket. American Realty Advisors sold the asset, according to CommercialEdge information, in a deal arranged by CBRE. The property previously…

Office bargain: Foundry sells Sunrise building for $37M – 36% discount from purchase price seven years ago

Foundry Commercial sold an office building in Sunrise for $20.9 million less than it had paid seven years ago, as suburban properties continued to trade at a discount in South Florida. Accesso Partners bought the six-story Sawgrass Lake Center at 13450 West Sunrise Boulevard for $36.5 million from Orlando-based Foundry, according to records. The buyer took out a $21M…

Ocean580: 10-Story Beachfront Residences Planned for 580 Briny Avenue in Pompano Beach

Canadian developer Claridge Homes has unveiled plans for Ocean580, a 10-story luxury beachfront development in the heart of Pompano Beach. Located at 580 Briny Avenue, the boutique project will feature 17 exclusive residences offering direct oceanfront living. Designed by FSMY Architects with interiors by Manhas Design, the development is expected to be delivered in winter 2027…

BDT & MSD proposes 60-unit project at Boca Raton Resort, amid luxury condo frenzy in South Florida

BDT & MSD Partners proposes a 60-unit condominium at Boca Raton Resort & Club, amid a development frenzy for luxury projects in South Florida. The merchant bank, which has offices in New York and Chicago, wants to build an eight-story building with a 142-space underground garage on a nearly 4-acre site at the resort at 501 East Camino Real, according to an application…

13th Floor nabs board approval for 340 rentals at Boca Raton Tri-Rail station, amid South Florida multifamily construction frenzy

13th Floor Investments landed board approval for a 340-unit apartment project at the Boca Raton Tri-Rail station. 13th Floor, led by managing principal Arnaud Karsenti, plans an eight-story building on an 8.2-acre site at 680 West Yamato Road, according to an application filed to the city last week. The development, called Boca Village, will include 34 affordably…

Insurer lands approval for 287 rentals in Boca Raton, after year of record multifamily construction

A developer landed preliminary approval for a 287-unit apartment project at the Park at Broken Sound in Boca Raton, following a year of record apartment construction in South Florida. Mutual of America Life Insurance Company plans a seven-story building with 2,000 square feet of retail at 1150 Northwest Broken Sound Parkway, according to an application submitted to the city last…

The Ritz-Carlton Residences Tops Off in Palm Beach Gardens, Completion Expected in Early 2026

Palm Beach Gardens developer, Catalfumo Companies led by CEO Daniel Catalfumo, announced The Ritz-Carlton Residences, Palm Beach Gardens has reached its summit with construction ahead of schedule. Located on the last 14 contiguous acres of waterfront in Palm Beach, the development is 40 percent sold and is slated for completion in early 2026. This marks the official top…

Industrial Tops Commercial Real Estate Investment Picks For 2025, Expert Says

Many CRE firms are hopeful that 2025 will be the year that just about everything across the board booms after dozens of months of turbulence. For his part, Michael Thom, attorney in the business and finance department at Obermayer, has zeroed in specifically on the industrial sector. Industrial has many attributes that make it an attractive investment. One of them…

The Fed’s Beige Book: Southeast Economy Holds Steady

The new Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta describes mostly more of the same in the southeastern economy: modest growth, steady employment, and mixed pricing power for businesses. The Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal feedback from business contacts across the six states of the Sixth Federal Reserve District: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana…

Climate Risk Disclosure Ramps Up Gradually

This year is a key milestone for several climate risk disclosure laws.  Companies subject to the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) must begin reporting this year based on 2024 data, while those covered by Australia’s climate risk disclosure mandate for large companies must begin reporting in 2026, based on 2025 data.  In the US, many CRE companies…

Distressed Debt is Consistently Growing

Distressed office loans have been a common theme of CRE over the last year. Slowly but steadily, almost every sector of commercial real estate has growing loan distress. Self storage and industrial show blips of distress, but look like nothing when compared to multifamily and office. Construction debt is typically based on SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) rates which…

Manufacturing Reshoring Is Breathing New Life Into U.S. Industrial Markets

A manufacturing comeback is underway in the U.S. Once heavily outsourced to countries with lower labor costs; manufacturing is returning (or “reshoring”) to America as companies seek to minimize risk, ensure quality, and meet rising consumer and regulatory expectations for sustainability. Several factors are converging to encourage U.S. companies to reevaluate their production…

2025 Expectations for the U.S. Apartment Market

Demand for apartments in 2025 is expected to remain solid – if not excellent – based on 2024 readings. Continued job growth, strong wage growth, improving affordability, improved consumer sentiment, near-record resident retention and fewer move-outs to the single-family for-purchase market colored the 2024 market landscape. These things appear likely to persist well into 2025.

Miami Investors Buy Houston Office Tower

A Miami-based investment firm has acquired Lockton Place, a 186,747-SF, Class A office building in the Westchase submarket in west Houston, JLL Capital Markets reported. JLL represented the seller, Triten Real Estate Partners and Affinius Capital, in the sale to Galium Capital, a Miami-based firm led by Jacques Bessoudo and Iser Rabinovitz.

Completed in 2017, the eight-story Lockton Place is over 96% leased to a diverse tenant roster anchored by Lockton Companies, the world’s largest privately held insurance brokerage firm.

 

The post Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 15, 2025: Entertainment Development Planned for Marlins Stadium; More… appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 8, 2025: Brickell Waterfront Assemblage Under Contract for $520M; $291M Refi Nabbed for Little Havana MXU Dev; More…

Developers Under Contract for $520M Waterfront Assemblage at 1001 and 1111 Brickell Bay Drive in Brickell

Oak Row Equities and Mariposa Real Estate have reached an agreement to acquire Aimco’s 4.25-acre waterfront property at 1001 and 1111 Brickell Bay Drive for $520 million. This transaction, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, will represent the largest single land acquisition in South Florida to date. The site, zoned for over three million square feet of development…

Oak Row buying Aimco’s bayfront Brickell assemblage for $520M

Oak Row Equities is in line for one of South Florida’s biggest real estate deals. The firm is in contract to purchase a 4.25-acre bayfront assemblage in Miami’s Brickell Financial District for $520 million. Aimco, a Denver-based real estate investment trust, is selling the 32-story Brickell Bay Office Tower at 1001 Brickell Bay Drive and the adjacent 31-story, 357-unit Yacht Club…

Oak Row Equities To Pay Record $520M For Miami Waterfront Property

Oak Row Equities is about to pay $520M for a waterfront land assemblage in Miami’s Brickell neighborhood, the highest price ever paid for land in the city. Oak Row is under contract to buy 4.25 acres at 1001 and 1111 Brickell Bay Drive, according to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing by the seller, Apartment Investment & Management Co.

Miami developers start new year with record $520 million deal for rare property

Developers kicked off 2025 by announcing the priciest commercial property deal on record in Miami’s only neighborhood that allows the construction of supertall towers, the latest sign of a development surge across the city’s financial district. Oak Row Equities, a private equity and real estate development firm based in New York and Miami, and Mariposa Real Estate…apartment complex built in 1998.

‘Landmark Development That Will Redefine Miami’s Skyline’ Planned at $520M Brickell Site

Developer Oak Row Equities and Mariposa Real Estate announced they have entered into an agreement to buy a property in Brickell, with plans for a major development. It will be the largest land acquisition in Miami’s history, at $520 million, when the deal closes. Ultra-luxury condominiums are planned. In a statement, Oak Row said it envisions…

2025 Brings a Major Milestone and Closure for Mandarin Oriental on Brickell Key

Twenty-twenty-five will be a bittersweet year for Mandarin Oriental, Miami. On one hand, the property is celebrating a milestone as it marks 25 years in operation. However, the hotel has also announced it will officially close on May 31 to make way for a new chapter. The space will remain shuttered until 2030, making way for an entirely new Mandarin Oriental, Miami property…

45-Story Viceroy Tops Off In Brickell

Another tower has topped off in Brickell. The 45-story Viceroy Brickell was actually announced as being topped off in late October. Now, the upper roof structure of the tower is taking shape, a new photo by Due Italiani a Miami shows. Viceroy Brickell will include 420 residential condos upon completion, along with amenities. Baccarat Residences, a 75-story tower…

Demolition Prep Underway At One Brickell City Centre for 977′ Office Development

Demolition preparation work is underway at a building on the One Brickell City Centre site, according to photos by Phillip Pessar. Records show that a demolition permit is still in review. This would be the last remaining building needed to clear the site. Demolition of another building on the site has already been completed. One Brickell City Centre is planned to have around 1.5M…

Plans Announced for $500 Million Mixed-Use Tower, The Helm, in Miami Design District

Helm Equities has unveiled plans for The Helm, a $500 million mixed-use tower slated to rise in Miami’s Design District. The announcement marks a significant evolution from an earlier proposal in 2022, which envisioned a much smaller office building for the same property. The new project will include residential units alongside commercial and retail spaces…

Terreno drops $196M for warehouses in Doral, marking one of last year’s top industrial deals

Terreno Realty bought three warehouses in Doral for $195.6 million, marking one of last year’s top industrial deals. The Bellevue, Washington-based firm bought the buildings that span 495,000 square feet on a 23.4-acre site at 7725-7785 Northwest 41st Street, according to a Terreno news release. Santa Monica, California-based GLP Capital Partners is the seller…

Commuter rail plan deletes station on Miami Dade College land

The cost of long-awaited North Corridor commuter rail to Hard Rock Stadium has risen again, its use has been put off again, and it no longer will have a station promised on Miami Dade College’s North Campus, the Citizens’ Independent Transportation Trust has learned. Furthermore, every earlier study of the system is being repeated. So now rail completion is estimated…

Valoro Capital buys Miami Beach office building for $23M, a slight discount from its price a decade ago

Valoro Capital bought an office building in Miami Beach for $22.7 million, marking a slight discount off its purchase price a decade ago. The deal comes at a contradictory time… as landlords feel the sting of elevated interest rates and higher expenses. Brickell-based Valoro Capital purchased the property at 1680 Meridian Avenue, according to the buyer’s news release.

Miami Beach set to take big step to join Blue Zones

Miami Beach is preparing to embark on a journey to improve the community’s wellbeing and become a Blue Zones city as it is set to launch Blue Zones Ignite, an in-depth readiness and feasibility assessment, this February. The Blue Zones Project website says it seeks “to improve the overall well-being of an entire community’s residents. Well-being is a measure of a person’s…

Miami Center for Mental Health faces pivotal February vote

The long-awaited Miami Center for Mental Health and Recovery is one step closer to opening its doors as a key vote scheduled Feb. 4 by county commissioners on its operating plan, contracts and budget for the next five years marks a milestone for the first-of-its-kind center that targets the intersection of mental health and the cycle between homelessness and incarceration.

HCA Florida Aventura Hospital, HCA Florida Mercy Hospital reveal construction projects, upgrades

HCA Florida Aventura Hospital and HCA Florida Mercy Hospital are in the midst of multiple upgrades and new construction. “We finished one of our brand new cath labs,” said Carolyn Hunter, chief operating officer of the Aventura hospital, “and we have one more that’s set to open in the spring of 2025. We also have finished renovation of our gastroenterology suite…

Baron buys out MG Developer’s interest in two South Florida projects

Baron Property Group has taken full control of two apartment projects in Hialeah and near Coral Gables after buying out its partner, MG Developer. “We made a deal that made sense for the both of us,” Matthew Baron, president of his eponymous New York-based firm, told The Real Deal. “Both sides were happy with it. And the buyout doesn’t change the timeline for either project.”

Alirio Torrealba: Shifts from auto dealership career to drive MG Developer

Born in Caracas, Alirio Torrealba began his professional journey in the automotive industry, representing global brands like Ford and Kia with a career spanning over 25 years. But his entrepreneurial spirit eventually led him to a new chapter in Miami, where he transitioned into real estate development as the CEO of MG Developer.  Founded in 2014 and headquartered…

Scroll Through Google Streetviews of Miami’s Skyline, as Viewed from the Key Biscayne Bridge, for the Past 17 Years

Anyone that has had the pleasure of driving across the bridge to Key Biscayne, or even better, to walk, bike, or run on it, has to have noticed what a great view one gets of Miami’s rapidly growing skyline, the 3rd most dense in North America. What one can lose track of is just how much that skyline view has changed over time. SCROLL DOWN to check out these Google…

Demolition Permit Issued for Tower 36 Site at 3601 Biscayne Boulevard in Edgewater

The Tower 36 site at 3601 Biscayne Boulevard has received its demolition permit, marking a significant step toward the next stage of development. The permit, issued on December 18, lists Service Stations Maintenance, Inc. as the contractor for the demolition, with the work valued at $38,000. The site spans 1.6 acres and includes three parcels at 3601 Biscayne Boulevard…

At-Rate Apartments Proposed for 19121 NE 25th Avenue in Ojus

Developers have filed a pre-application for a project our sources call “the West Aventura 74”, a residential development in Ojus. The project would comprise about 105,000 square feet of new construction, featuring 74 apartments in eight stories. The studio to three-bedroom homes would span 543 to 1,401 square feet each. They would be marketed as at-rate homes…

36-Story The Helm Planned In The Design District

Plans have been announced for a $500m mixed-use tower in the Design District called The Helm A much shorter office tower had been announced as being planned for the same property in 2022. Now, the building will be much taller and include residential units, thanks to Florida’s new Live Local Act. The Helm is planned to rise 36 stories and include: 162 branded residences…

First Glass Installed At 100-Story Waldorf Astoria Hotel & Residences

The Waldorf Astoria Hotel and Residences Miami has reached another construction milestone. The building had its first glass installed late last month. Construction appears to be advancing much more quickly now that the building is out of the ground, after a June foundation pour. The shell of the building also surpassed a neighboring building in height last month.

Miami’s Largest Office Tower Has A Giant New Rooftop Butterfly Mural

A giant butterfly mural has been completed on a rooftop at the Southeast Financial Center in downtown Miami. The mural was done freehand by Mantra, a French artist. It showcases 18 butterflies that can be found in downtown Miami and around Florida. It took 400 hours and 200 gallons of paint over a six week period to complete, according to Designboom.

520-Room Airport Westin Hotel Connected To Terminal Set To Break Ground at MIA

Construction is about to begin on new Westin hotel directly connected to the terminals at Miami International Airport, according to CBS Miami. Groundbreaking is planned for January 2025, with completion in December 2027. Passengers will be able to walk from MIA’s terminals to the new hotel via a pedestrian footbridge. The hotel will have 520 guest rooms.

Kapstones expands into South Florida, buys Radisson-branded hotel for $22M

Kapstones is planting its flag in Miami by acquiring a Radisson-branded hotel for $22 million. An affiliate of Sarasota-based Kapstones, led by CEO Marc Gagliardi, bought the Radisson Red Miami Airport at 3401 Northwest 25th Street, records and real estate database Vizzda show. The buyer also took over a $15.3 million Centennial Bank loan secured by the six-story building…

Publix’s buying spree continues with $40M North Miami acquisition

Publix rang up another South Florida shopping center deal, paying $40 million for a North Miami site anchored by one of its stores. The The latest purchase is a 61,858-square-foot Publix store and pharmacy, a 28,330-square-foot strip mall, a four-story office building and two outparcels at 12700, 12800, 12864 and 13000 Biscayne Boulevard, records show.

Monceau proposes 90-unit workforce building in Goulds, as developers seize on demand for below-market rentals

The Haccoun family’s firm proposes a 90-unit workforce rental building in Goulds, as developers continue to seize on demand for below-market housing in South Florida. Bay Harbor Islands-based Monceau Real Estate wants to build a four-story building on a nearly 2-acre development site on the northwest corner of Southwest 216th Street and Southwest 119th Avenue…

Developer Submits Bid For Historic Courthouse Building

A developer has submitted an offer to purchase the historic Dade Civil Courthouse at 73 West Flagler in downtown Miami, according to Miami Today. GFO Acquisitions LLC, which is a subsidiary of GFO Investments, submitted the bid of “about” $52.3 million. Marisa Galbut is the CEO and president of of GFO, with Russell Galbut the chairman. The developer plans a mostly…

Worldcenter Metromover Station Closes For ‘Major Renovation’

Miami-Dade transit said it is closing the Park West Metromover station, beginning today. Closure of the station is expected to last up to six months. A “major renovation” is planned, with the upgrades being a key component of the Miami Worldcenter project. The enhancements will include, replaced tiles, new entrance canopies, refurbished escalators, new seating…

Total Demolition Permit Issued For Tower 36 Site

Miami’s Building Department has issued a total demolition permit for the Tower 36 site. The permit was both approved and issued on December 18. In Early December, developer One Thousand Group announced it had closed on the acquisition of the former gas station for $53M. Tower 36 will include branded residences, in a tower designed by internationally renowned…

Developer Proposes 90-Unit Workforce Housing Development in Goulds

Monceau Realty has filed plans for a 90-unit apartment complex in Goulds, one of Miami-Dade County’s fastest-growing neighborhoods. The proposal, submitted through Goulds 176 Estates LLC and led by Julien Haccoun, targets a 1.94-acre site at 11905 and 11915 SW 216th Street. The property, currently hosting only a duplex, was acquired for $4.2 million in 2023…

Four-Phase Project Planned for JHS Campus at 1500 N.W. 12th Avenue in Miami

The Public Health Trust of Miami is moving forward with a four-phase, mixed-use venture connected to the city’s largest hospital. The Related Group’s affordable housing branch has a 3.3-acre parcel under contract from Jackson Health System, which currently hosts a parking garage and the 691,584-square-foot Jackson Medical Tower office.

Developer Secures $291 Million in Financing for Centro City Mixed-Use Development in West Little Havana

Terra has secured $291 million in permanent financing for the first phase of Centro City, a 38-acre mixed-use development located in Miami-Dade County’s West Little Havana neighborhood. The project, spanning residential and retail components, marks a significant milestone as leasing begins and tenants prepare to move into the completed phase.

Terra Receives $291M Financing Package for Centro City Mixed-Use Development in Miami

Locally based development firm Terra has received a total of $291 million in permanent financing for the recently completed first phase of Centro City, a 38-acre mixed-use development located just west of Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood. Phase I comprises 350,000 square feet of retail space, as well as three eight-story multifamily buildings that house 470 market-rate…

Terra Secures $187M for Miami Project’s Apartment Component

Terra has secured $291 million in permanent financing for the first phase of Centro City in Miami-Dade County. The 38-acre, newly-completed mixed use development benefits from two loans from separate lenders which will be used to pay off the development’s existing construction financing. Apollo Global Management and Mack Real Estate Credit Strategies…

David Martin’s Terra nabs $291M refi for mixed-use project near Miami’s Little Havana

David Martin’s Terra scored a $291 million refinancing for the recently completed first phase of a 38-acre mixed-use project near Miami’s Little Havana. The Coconut Grove-based developer secured a $187 million loan from JVP Management secured by three eight-story buildings with 470 apartments. The buildings are expected to have their first tenants move in this March…

Location Ventures’ Miami Beach dev site sells for $18M — but investors are frozen out

Another piece of Rishi Kapoor’s former real estate empire sold for $17.5 million, but the deal froze out more than 30 co-living condo buyers. Bernice Lee, a court-appointed receiver overseeing Kapoor’s defunct Location Ventures, completed the sale of the unfinished Urbin Miami Beach co-living condominium project at 1234 and 1260 Washington Avenue in Miami Beach…

Developer Proposes 90-Unit Workforce Housing Venture for 11905 SW 216th Street in Bay Harbor Islands

Bay Harbor Islands-based Monceau Realty has filed a pre-application for a garden-style housing development in Miami-Dade County. The four-story complex would comprise 90 apartments featuring three different layout plans. Our sources indicate that homes would include one-bedroom and two-bedroom floorplans, measuring 535 to 766 square feet each.

Prive sues South American partners for more than $20M in damages

Usually, when a South Florida real estate project goes haywire, it’s the investors accusing the developer of a double-cross. But the tables have turned, according to a recent lawsuit filed in Miami-Dade Circuit Court. Prive Group and Javier Rabinovich, the North Miami Beach-based firm’s CEO, are seeking roughly $20 million in damages from six Peruvian investors: Cesar Augusto Paniagua…

Terreno Realty Acquires Industrial Park in Doral for $195.6M

Metro Seattle-based Terreno Realty Corp. has acquired Terreno Doral Air Logistics, an industrial park in the Miami suburb of Doral, for $195.6 million. The seller was not disclosed. Located at 7725-7785 N.W. 41st St., the facility is situated near the Palmetto Expressway and Miami International Airport. The property provides 110 dock-high loading positions, 36-foot clear heights…

After brief retail spending spree, Easton returns to its South Florida industrial roots

Easton Group is back in the industrial game after a short retail spending spree in recent months, buying its partner’s interest in a Doral warehouse for $26 million. An affiliate of Easton, a family-run firm led by Ed Easton that is based in Doral, is the new owner of 25th Logistics Center, a 105,000-square-foot industrial facility at 9880 Northwest 25th Street, records show.

Taubco, Landau Secure $74M Construction Loan for One Kane Concourse Office Project on Bay Harbor Islands

A joint venture between Taubco and Landau Properties has secured a $74 million construction loan for One Kane Concourse, the only Class A office development on Bay Harbor Islands in Miami. The 125,000-square-foot project is also the only Miami office building that will offer private boat access and dockage. 3650 Capital provided the loan. Located at 9551 E. Bay Harbor…

Regency Development lands $56M construction loan for Bay Harbor condo project, as South Florida financings flow

Regency Development Group landed a $55.7 million construction loan for a luxury waterfront condo project in Bay Harbor Islands. The deal adds to a torrent of financings in South Florida this year, as the region defied an expected slowdown due to elevated interest rates. Miami-based Regency plans the eight-story La Maré Regency Collection building with 33 condos…

Terra launches sales for Well-branded condos in Coconut Grove

In step with New Year’s health-and-fitness resolutions, David Martin is launching a Coconut Grove project designed for the wellness zealot. David Martin’s Terra launched sales of its second Well-branded condo project in South Florida, this time an eight-story, 194-unit planned development in Coconut Grove, according to a press release.

Neology Development Obtains $63.5M Bridge Loan from Starwood for Miami Multifamily Project

Neology Development Group has obtained a $63.5 million bridge loan from Starwood Property Trust to pay off the construction loan for Fourteen Main Street Residences, a multifamily development located along Miami’s historic 36th Street. Berkadia arranged the original $57.5 million construction loan through Churchill Real Estate to fund Neology’s third project in Miami’s…

Miami Office Activity Takes a Dive in Q4 as ‘Market Stabilizes to New Normal’

Leasing activity for the fourth quarter in Miami’s office sector has dropped 24 percent year-over-year to 3.7 million square feet, a report from Avison Young finds. Also, absorption hit negative territory at -51,370 square feet. That comes despite strong demand earlier in the year; in the second quarter, nearly +200,000 square feet of space was absorbed. Vacancy ticked up by 110 bp…

Developer Secures $107.6M Construction Loan for Luxury Condo in Surfside

Fort Partners, the developer behind the Four Seasons Residences at the Surf Club, has secured a $107.6 million construction loan to develop a 10-story luxury condominium at 9163–9165 Collins Avenue in Surfside. Designed by ODP Architecture & Design, the project will feature 14 expansive units and a subterranean parking garage with 32 spaces.

One Thousand Group and Terra have secured a $285 million construction loan for Villa Miami

One Thousand Group and Terra have secured a $285 million construction loan to bring Villa Miami to life in Miami’s East Edgewater neighborhood. As the first-ever residential tower branded by the world-renowned Major Food Group (MFG), the 650-foot-tall waterfront condominium is set to become a new architectural landmark on Biscayne Bay featuring 70 private residences…

NoMi Citywide Revitalization in Motion

During a Nov. 26 North Miami council meeting, developers unveiled plans for a transformative 22-story residential tower at 1200 North Bayshore Dr., near the bay. The project, featuring 267 units and 422 parking spaces, was pitched as a driver of economic growth for the area, all the while sparking an active debate among the project’s representative and several council…

Lease roundup: Ferraro moving law office to Miami’s Edgewater, boutique investment bank opens in Brickell

Ferraro Law Firm is ditching Brickell in favor of Edgewater. The law firm leased 28,000 square feet at Oak Row Equities’ mixed-use tower at 2600 Biscayne Boulevard in Miami, where it will move in 2026, according to the tenant’s news release. The space is bigger than Ferraro Law Firm’s current 22,000-square-foot office at 600 Brickell Avenue in Miami, where the firm’s lease…

These were 2024’s biggest news stories in South Florida real estate

This year saw record prices for waterfront homes and new projects launched by developers, buoyed by enduring demand. On the flip side, South Florida’s office market slowed down. High interest rates stifled multifamily. And residential brokerages adapted to changes brought by a landmark settlement in the class action lawsuit filed against the National Association of Realtors…

Referral Firm For Lawyers Nearly Doubling Size Of HQ In Move To Coral Gables

The No-Fault Group is almost doubling its office space, relocating its Miami headquarters in Doral to a penthouse in Coral Gables. The medical and attorney referral service company signed a lease for almost 22K SF of office space at 2990 Ponce in Coral Gables, according to a release. Colliers’ Stephen Rutchik and Kevin Gonzalez represented the landlord, Dallas-based…

Estate Cos. Receives $78M Construction Loan for Luxury Apartment Development in Davie

The Estate Cos. (EIG), a South Miami-based multifamily developer, has received a $78 million construction loan for its luxury apartment development in the north Miami suburb of Davie. Banesco Bank provided the loan for Phase I of Soleste Reserve, an eight-story property situated on 2.5 acres that features a selection of floor plans ranging from 500 to 1,100 square feet.

Related, BH and Pebb score approval for Office Depot campus mixed-use project

A partial redevelopment of Boca Raton’s Office Depot campus won a key city approval. On Thursday night, the Boca Raton Planning and Zoning Board voted in favor of a site plan by Related Group, BH Group and Pebb Enterprises to replace an existing office building with an eight-story building with 500 apartments, nearly 43,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space…

New Jersey Developer Acquires Plaza Del Mar at 250 South Ocean Boulevard in Manalapan

Garden Commercial has added to its Florida portfolio with the acquisition of Plaza Del Mar, an 83,841-square-foot shopping center located at 250 South Ocean Boulevard in Manalapan. Positioned at the intersection of Ocean Avenue and A1A, the upscale, grocery-anchored retail destination is directly across from the Eau Palm Beach Resort & Spa, offering a prime…

Garden Commercial jumps into South Florida’s Publix-anchored shopping center frenzy with $37M purchase

Garden Commercial is diving into South Florida’s Publix-anchored shopping center frenzy for its first purchase in the tri-county region. The Short Hills, New Jersey-based firm, a subsidiary of Garden Homes Management, paid $37 million for Plaza Del Mar at 201 South Ocean Boulevard in Manalapan, records and real estate database Vizzda show.

Mormon church expands South Florida portfolio with $102M purchase of apartment complex near Wellington

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints’ real estate arm dropped $102.4 million for an apartment complex near Wellington, marking its continued investment in South Florida. Property Reserve, which invests the church’s reserve funds into commercial real estate, bought the 284-unit Elan Polo Gardens at 4310 Chukka Lane in unincorporated Palm Beach County…

Cabot acquires Lake Park complex for $91M as warehouse deals surge

Cabot Properties joined the list of South Florida’s top industrial buyers in 2024 after paying $91.3 million for a recently completed industrial complex in Lake Park. An affiliate of Boston-based Cabot, led by CEO Franz Colloredo-Mansfeld, purchased Silver Beach Industrial Park from the project’s co-developer, Los Angeles-based American Realty Advisors…

Steve Ross lands $150 refi for downtown West Palm convention center hotel, as billionaire continues area investment

Steve Ross, the billionaire developer shunning retirement to continue working in South Florida, is on a refinancing roll. His company, Related Ross, scored a $150 million loan for its convention center hotel in downtown West Palm Beach. New York-based BDT & MSD Partners provided the loan, which refinanced an existing $105 million debt and bumped it up by $45 million…

Cleveland Clinic plans outpatient center at Steve Ross project in downtown West Palm

Cleveland Clinic is planning an outpatient center at one of Steve Ross’ projects in downtown West Palm Beach in addition to a separate new hospital elsewhere in the city. Cleveland Clinic will lease 120,000 square feet at the 15 CityPlace tower that Ross’ Related Ross plans to develop, according to a Cleveland Clinic news release. It will offer chemotherapy and infusions…

Steve Ross trades New York state of mind for West Palm Beach

During the pandemic, Steve Ross took refuge in his historic Palm Beach estate, known as the Reef. But the now 84-year-old wasn’t just weathering the coronavirus nor relaxing on the two sprawling oceanfront acres in his golden years. Ross — billionaire, developer, lawyer, philanthropist, and Miami Dolphins owner — was there to reimagine West Palm Beach, the city over…

SJC sells Whole Foods-anchored shopping center in Palm Beach County for $49M

SJC Ventures sold a Whole Foods-anchored shopping center for $49.2 million to a Russian investor beefing up his South Florida retail portfolio. An entity managed by Boca Raton-based investor Yevgeniy Yermakov acquired Boynton Beach Marketplace at 7395 Boynton Beach Boulevard in Palm Beach County, records and real estate database Vizzda show.

Q4 2024 Preliminary National CRE Trends

Multifamily Continued to Defy the Supply Shock, Office’s Vacancy Rate Broke Another Record, Retail Rents Drift Higher with Tight Supply, And Industrial Maintains Status Quo The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation continues to remain important as the prolonged economic soft landing endures. Three rate cuts by the FOMC throughout 2024 helped…

Here’s What It Costs To Build the Office Tenants Say They Want

The higher cost of construction and design services for office space has cooled in parts of the United States, a change that some project professionals hope is a sign that tenants and landlords could look to resume stalled or delayed plans for interior renovations. Design and construction costs are expected to climb about 2% this year in some U.S. markets, according to a new…

Chart – Inflation Watch as 2025 Begins: TIPS Spead Indicating 2.44% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years

The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on January 7, 2025. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. This is a useful and frequently quoted measure…

2025 Self Storage Cycle Check

As we head into 2025, we want to review where we are in the self storage cycle. The industry is known for its dramatic swings, so the question we try to answer below is where we think we are. I got into the industry 10 years ago and at the time wrote that the industry was approaching the peak of oversupply. Today, we find ourselves at the complete other end of that spectrum.

DOJ widens case against landlords

The Department of Justice is expanding its price-fixing lawsuit against real estate software company RealPage, accusing six landlords of unlawfully conspiring to raise rents. The property managers — which include Blackstone, Cushman & Wakefield and Greystar Real Estate Partners — allegedly shared prices to manipulate rents using RealPage, which was initially sued by the DOJ…

JP Morgan: 2025 commercial real estate trends

Following several years of elevated inflation, muted growth and general uncertainty, commercial real estate could be positioned for an upswing. “The industry is poised to be in a better place compared to the last few years,” said Victor Calanog, Global Head of Research and Strategy, Real Estate Private Markets at Manulife Investment Management. “It appears that the landing will…”

Why is 2025 Likely to Have Strong Apartment Demand if Job Growth Has Slowed?

Demand surprised to the upside in 2024, with a calendar year figure totaling nearly 667,000 units absorbed. The expectation is that this should carry forward into 2025, even if the pace of absorption diminishes slightly due to the likelihood of slowing new deliveries. Moderating job growth is a potential demand concern going into 2025. Indeed, job growth…

Miami Herbert’s real estate programs pave the way in commercial real estate education

Miami’s vibrant urban development, thriving tourism, and business-friendly environment make it the perfect place to study real estate. The city’s constant evolution, with new developments in commercial, retail, and healthcare real estate, provides undergraduate and graduate students at the University of Miami Patti and Allan Herbert Business School with ample…

Dubai-based developer of Surfside collapse site plans $20B US data centers investment

The developer of the Surfside collapse site plans to pump at least $20 billion into data centers across the U.S. Dubai-based Damac Properties, led by Hussain Sajwani, will target data centers in Arizona, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas, President-elect Donald Trump announced at a news conference on Tuesday, CBS News reported.

The post Miami Commercial Real Estate News January 8, 2025: Brickell Waterfront Assemblage Under Contract for $520M; $291M Refi Nabbed for Little Havana MXU Dev; More… appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Chart – Inflation Watch as 2025 Begins: TIPS Spead Indicating 2.44% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T5YIE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE, January 8, 2025.

The chart above is of the 5-Year breakeven inflation rate, commonly referred to as the TIPS spread, for the five year period ending on January 7, 2025. This illustrates the difference in the yields, i.e. the spread, between United States Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) of the same maturity. This is a useful and frequently quoted measure of expectations for (CPI) inflation in the financial markets. The spread indicates expected inflation, of interest to investors in commercial real estate – read more about that below – and for that matter investors of all kinds, not to mention consumers.

The 5-year TIPS spread hit a high in March, 2022 at 3.59%. As the Fed has maneuvered aggressively to tap inflation down, this pulled back to around 2.5% that same year, where it has remained since. Actual inflation was of course much higher at times, but the expectation for the coming 5 years remained more subdued as monetary policy resolutely addressed it.

It’s worth noting that despite concerns raised by some about potential inflation risks from the incoming administration’s stated plans, the markets don’t appear to be signaling alarm—at least for now. The uptick that began in September 2024 could reflect these concerns as the election outcome became more certain. However, it seems more plausible that this movement is simply what it appears to be: a minor fluctuation in the TIPS spread within the range it has occupied since late Q3 2022. Market participants seem to be betting that either the proposed policies won’t be implemented at levels that would drive significant inflation, or that these policies are less inflationary than some have suggested.

“Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair.”

~Sam Ewing

Real Money on the Line

Real money is at stake with these spreads. TIPS pay interest every six months, based on a fixed rate that is calculated by multiplying the adjusted principal by one-half the calculated interest rate (i.e. half a year’s worth of inflation at that rate). Thus, a “bet” that an investor makes with these bonds has real financial implications. If actual inflation is higher than priced in the markets, a TIPS buyer will make more that a straight treasury buyer. If it is lower, that TIPS buyer will make less. How much money is at stake? In 2017 Morningstar pegged the market at $1.2 trillion. Thus, every 1% difference is a $12 billion swing. Real money.

Also seemingly relevant to the topic of effectiveness of this spread to predict inflation is a research piece put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2019: Inflation expectations and inflation realities: a comparison of the Treasury Breakeven Inflation curve and the Consumer Price Index before, during, and after the Great Recession. It concluded that TBI (Treasury Breakeven Inflation) rates reasonably approximated inflation reality before, during, and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009.  It noted that the average and median deviations between TBI rates and their respective annualized CPI-U inflation rates never exceed 81 basis points, and that, moreover, the dispersion of deviations, as measured by standard deviation and range, decreased as the maturity horizon increased. It went further to speculate that given that TBI expectations overshoot actual inflation in the long term and undershoot inflation in the short term, it is likely that the liquidity premium has a considerable effect in the short term but gets more than offset by the inflation premium in the long term.

Generally on Inflation and Commercial Real Estate

What is the impact of inflation on commercial real estate? In the near term, higher inflation tends to bring higher interest rates. Higher interest rates are a negative for commercial real estate. Higher rates means larger debt service payments, reducing the buying power of purchasers, and negatively impacting deal economics. It also means makes fixed income investments a more competitive investment, likely pulling capitalization rates (cap rates) up, and thus prices down. Over a longer period, however, the prospect of inflation leads to a principal benefit of commercial property investment, that of its potential as a hedge against inflation. After all, more inflation should lead to higher rent, at least in time.

In the near term, higher inflation typically leads to higher interest rates, which are generally a negative for commercial real estate. Higher rates result in larger debt service payments, reducing the buying power of purchasers and negatively impacting deal economics. Additionally, as fixed-income investments become more competitive, capitalization rates (cap rates) tend to rise, driving property prices downward. This can create challenges for sellers and lead to reduced transaction volumes as buyers adjust their return expectations.

Over the longer term, however, inflation can highlight one of the principal benefits of commercial real estate investment: its potential as a hedge against inflation. As inflation rises, rents generally increase, especially for properties with shorter lease terms or those tied to CPI-based escalations. These higher rents can drive income growth, offsetting some of the negative effects of inflation on property values and financing costs.

Effects on Income

Inflation often benefits property owners by increasing rental income over time. This is particularly true for properties with leases that include annual escalations or that allow for renegotiation at market rates. However, the timing of income growth can lag behind inflation, especially in markets with long-term leases or significant rent control measures. For properties with operating expenses passed through to tenants, rising costs may be recouped, preserving net operating income (NOI).

Effects on Pricing

Higher interest rates driven by inflation exert downward pressure on property values as cap rates rise. Investors may require higher yields to justify their investments, which compresses pricing, particularly for stabilized assets. However, assets with strong income growth potential or located in high-demand markets may still attract premium pricing. Inflation may also drive the cost of new construction higher, potentially reducing supply growth and supporting pricing for existing properties.

Effects on IRR for Investors

Inflation’s impact on internal rate of return (IRR) is multifaceted. In the short term, higher interest rates and rising cap rates can erode IRR due to increased financing costs and lower exit values. However, over the long term, properties with strong income growth can recover and even enhance IRR as rents and NOI rise. The timing and extent of these effects depend on the asset type, market conditions, and lease structures. Properties in sectors with shorter lease durations (e.g., multifamily or hospitality) may see faster rent adjustments, boosting IRR more quickly than those with long-term leases.

Summarizing the Effect of Inflation on Commercial Real Estate

While inflation presents short-term challenges for commercial real estate by increasing borrowing costs and pressuring valuations, it can create long-term opportunities for investors to benefit from rising rental income and its role as an inflation hedge. To mitigate risks, investors should focus on assets with strong income growth potential, favorable lease structures, and markets with resilient demand.

MIT published an excellent whitepaper on real estate’s ability to keep pace with inflation with data to 2016. They looked at then tendency of retail, multifamily, industrial, and office income and values to keep pace with inflation. The best at keeping pace income-wise was retail, with rent growth of 102% of inflation. Office was the worst performing at a quite dismal 18%. Values across the property types were more consistently kept pace, with retail again doing the best appreciating at 107% of inflation, office again the worst at 74% of inflation. I’ll speculate that the fairly drastic difference between income and value keeping pace with inflation is driven by vacancy. If you’re interested in the topic, read the paper.

Expectations for inflation come into play with lease structure and due diligence. A lease with a fixed rent increase becomes less attractive for a landlord with higher inflation expectations, and or course more attractive for a tenant. Similarly, a commercial property that is being acquired with existing leasing in place that have fixed or capped rent increases looks less attractive as inflation expectations increase. Also, a property being purchased with fixed rate financing will look increasingly attractive if a buyer anticipates inflation fueled increases in income. Finally, higher inflation tends to bring higher interest rates, which have a huge effect on commercial real estate. Inflation, in short, is very important to commercial property investors.

Resources Related to this TIPS Spread Post:

Citation for Chart: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T5YIE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE, January 8, 2025.

The post Chart – Inflation Watch as 2025 Begins: TIPS Spead Indicating 2.44% Expected Inflation for Next 5 Years appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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Scroll Through Google Streetviews of Miami’s Skyline for the Past 17 Years

Anyone that has had the pleasure of driving across the bridge to Key Biscayne, or even better, to walk, bike, or run on it, has to have noticed what a great view one gets of Miami’s rapidly growing skyline, the 3rd most dense in North America. What one can lose track of is just how much that skyline view has changed over time. SCROLL DOWN to check out these Google StreetView images recorded over the years.

2007 Miami Skyline

2009 Miami Skyline

2012 Miami Skyline

2015 Miami Skyline

2021 Miami Skyline

2022 Miami Skyline

2024 Miami Skyline

These changes in Miami’s skyline are mirrored in the areas demographic and economic trends (33130, 33131, other Miami-Dade County zip codes and cities) and property trends, all of which have been on a fairly steady upward trend as the city is increasingly noticed by global investors.  The Four Seasons building dominates the skyline in this view but as of the time of this post Panorama Tower, just to the right of The Four Seasons in this photo, is the tallest building in the city.  These will be joined soon by a number of other large buildings as Miami continues to enjoy significant growth, particularly in its central business district.  The skyline should thus continue to change.

This post, originally published in 2015 and then updated in 2021, is here republished updated yet again with 2022 and 2024 Google Streetview images. The story keeps growing.

The post Scroll Through Google Streetviews of Miami’s Skyline for the Past 17 Years appeared first on Hawkins Commercial Realty.

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